股指期货套期保值策略在股票型开放式基金风险管理中的应用

文章以沪深300指数中的IF0912合约为例,将双变量GARCH模型引入股票型开放式基金的风险管理中,实证研究股指期货套期保值策略在股票型开放式基金风险管理中的应用.研究结果表明:最小方差套期保值策略与时变套期保值策略虽然并不能完全消除风险,但相比未套期保值策略来说,采取套期保值策略可以降低股票型开放式基金的VaR(在险价值),其中基于双变量GARCH模型的时变套期保值策略的保值效果最佳.     

中国存在B-S难题吗?

目前中国依赖投资和出口驱动的经济发展模式已经引发诸多弊端和不良效应,在开放条件下,汇率变动对消费影响越来越大,居民消费变动的传递也会影响实际汇率,对中国的经验证据发现,实际汇率升值会抑制当前消费,随着消费增长率的增加,汇率被低估的概率减少,验证了B-S难题(消费—实际汇率悖论)在中国成立。     

基于农户行为理论的农村劳动力非农就业影响因素分析

本文以调研问卷为基础,从农户行为视角,运用Probit模型,分析家庭特征、户主特征、兵地不同体制、区域农村金融发展水平与就业环境对新疆农户非农就业的影响。研究发现：在家庭特征中,16岁以上劳动力数量、家庭在校子女数、家庭实际作物种植面积、农业收入占比对农户影响显著;个人特征中,受教育年限对农户非农就业有正向影响;不同体制下,地方农户相比兵团职工非农就业意愿更高;区域农村金融发展水平方面,仅“是否了解小额信贷政策”对农户非农就业具有负向影响;就业环境因素中,距离乡镇集市的距离对农户具有负向影响。文章最后提出了应加强农村社会保障,培训农户职业技能,减少兵团对职工外出务工的约束,增强金融机构在农户自主创业过程中的资金支持力度,增加农村地区的交通基础设施建设等政策建议。     

元谋县蔬菜种植户绿色生产行为采纳及影响因素分析

在乡村振兴与绿色发展的战略背景下,农业绿色生产作为一种新型的生产方式,是促进农业绿色发展转型、加快实现农业农村现代化以及农业发展可持续化的一项首要任务,而实现农业绿色发展的关键在于农户对绿色生产行为的采纳程度。基于此,以元谋县167户蔬菜种植户的调研数据为基础,运用Multivariat Probit模型分析社会认同、预期效益感知、政策制度环境3个方面对农户绿色生产行为采纳的影响。结果表明：蔬菜种植户对5项绿色生产技术采纳程度都不高;社会认同中的角色示范和组织参与能够在一定程度上对蔬菜种植户绿色生产行为采纳产生影响;蔬菜种植户对绿色生产技术预期收入越高、环境影响越积极,绿色生产行为采纳意愿越强烈;政府技术推广与培训、补贴与鼓励都能显著提高蔬菜种植户绿色生产行为采纳积极性。鉴于此,建议充分发挥周围邻里的示范带动和组织参与的双重作用,提高农户绿色生产行为采纳预期经济、环境效益感知以及政府加强绿色生产技术的宣传和补贴力度,促使蔬菜种植户更好地融入元谋县产业绿色发展转型进程,促进元谋县在乡村振兴进程中蔬菜产业的绿色发展及菜品的提质增效。     

二元Copula函数的投资组合模型选择

Coplua模型是组合投资风险评估中常用模型,它具有多种不同的类型,模型选择的好坏对风险评估结果具有至关重要的影响.本文主要比较了二元正态Copula模型和二元t-Copula模型对中国股市数据拟合的优劣程度.针对这两种模型,利用上证综指、深证成指、上证基金、深证基金、东风汽车、中国石化、宝钢股份和万家乐的日收盘价数据估计相应的参数得到相应的拟合分布,然后分别与经验Copula函数作比较,通过计算拟合分布与经验分布之间的距离,得出二元t-Cop-ula函数能更好地拟合两组投资组合的日收益率数据的结论.     

独善其身还是兼济天下?——中国居民再分配偏好的实证研究

再分配偏好的提高反映出民众对当前收入分配状况的不满,本文致力于从个人利益和分配公平两个角度对中国居民的再分配偏好进行解释。根据Roemer的理论,本文从成功可控性的角度构造了反映居民分配公平观念的变量,并采用中国综合社会调查(2006)的微观调查数据和Ordered Probit模型,研究发现,个人利益论和分配公平论在中国都能得到实证支持,即中国居民的再分配偏好不但存在对自身利益的考虑,也有显著的追求分配公平的动机;同时,性别和受教育程度也是影响居民再分配偏好的因素。进一步分析表明上述结论具有良好的稳健性。总之,确保机会均等、维护分配公平对于降低居民再分配偏好具有十分重要的现实意义。     

泊松积分在概率论中的应用

文章介绍了泊松积分在正态分布、二维正态分布、对数正态分布等问题中常见的应用,并给出了具体的例子。     

Analysing passenger behaviour towards the catering industry: Implications for airport management

This research note seeks to provide the most detailed analysis yet of passenger behaviour towards the airport catering industry. With the broadest sample to date among similar studies, namely 37,000 passengers surveyed at 8 different airports with 38 explanatory variables, a large number of conclusions have been drawn. The most important of these is that the factors that most influence a passenger's using a catering establishment during his/her stay at an airport are his/her physiological needs and social reasons. However, contrary to what was anticipated a priori, socioeconomic status only has a moderate influence, while having a wide range and variety of foodstuffs on offer does not result in passengers consuming more. It is also observed that low-cost airline passengers consume less than those of traditional airlines, probably due to the stress related to boarding with these types of airlines.     

TOURISTS INTRA-DESTINATION VISITS AND TRANSPORT MODE: A BIVARIATE PROBIT MODEL

This paper proposes that movement patterns and transportation mode choices are linked, and then identifies the estimation of a bivariate probit model as an appropriate technique to investigate the two correlated choices. The two variables are described by a mixed combination of independent variables, wherein the transport mode choice can be explained by demographics, whereas movement patterns are influenced by trip characteristics. Moreover, the introduction of activity participation and motivation in the model allows for a better understanding of tourist behavior in relation to the two investigated variables. Finally, marginal effects are derived to quantify the impacts and draw policy implications in destination management and transport planning.     

Entry Mode Choice and Performance: Evidence from Taiwanese FDI in China

This paper examines entry mode choices between wholly owned subsidiaries (WOSs) and joint ventures (JVs) and the impact on performance for Taiwanese foreign direct investment in China. Taiwan and China share common cultural traits, so Taiwanese investors inherently prefer WOSs because these investors are acquainted with local conditions in China. This paper shows that even if WOSs are a natural choice, transaction cost theory is applicable in explaining the adoption of JVs by Taiwanese firms when investing in China. Firms that choose WOSs generally have higher sales growth and superior profitability. However, the smaller the subsidiary and the less experienced the firm, the more likely that JVs will have better performance.